Consultant - Predicting IDP demographics

Predicting IDP demographics consultancy

Terms of Reference (ToR)

Background on Save the Children

Save the Children is the leading global independent organisation for children. Save the Children believes every child deserves a future. Around the world, we work every day to give children a healthy start in life, the opportunity to learn and protection from harm. When crisis strikes, and children are most vulnerable, we are always among the first to respond and the last to leave. We ensure children’s unique needs are met and their voices are heard. We deliver lasting results for millions of children, including those hardest to reach.

We do whatever it takes for children – every day and in times of crisis – transforming their lives and the future we share.

Our vision: A world in which every child attains the right to survival, protection, development and participation.

Our mission: To inspire breakthroughs in the way the world treats children, and to achieve immediate and lasting change in their lives.

Our values: Accountability, ambition, collaboration, creativity and integrity.

We are committed to ensuring our resources are used as efficiently as possible, in order to focus them on achieving maximum impact for children.

Background information/context

MDI’s Predictive Displacement (PD) project is focused on the use of predictive analytics and other data-driven approaches to predict key data on displacements, allowing more efficient and effective responses.

Currently, lack of demographical data for displaced populations inhibits our ability to plan for the specific needs of vulnerable groups within displaced populations – foremost children and women and girls. The PD project has been working on new approaches to estimating this data, which will allow us to ensure that we are able to identify the types and scale of interventions required by these groups.

The PD team has been working with partners to deliver this project, and our demographic disaggregation workstream has been supported by the expertise of the University of Southampton’s WorldPop team. Initial work was completed in 2020 on an approach to calculating age and gender demographics of internally displaced populations, focused on northern Nigeria. This approach is based on cohort component methodology and prediction of IDP flow. We are seeking to complete this work, extend it to other case study contexts, and refine the underlying methodological process. Ultimately we intend to share this work with other humanitarian sector actors.


The supplier will deliver age and gender disaggregation functionality for use in the PD project’s work, building on and refining existing work done by the project and other relevant actors. They will extend use of the model to additional contexts outside the initial case study region, and take part in validation processes.

Location and official travel involved

No travel will be required and there are no location constraints.

Services the Supplier will provide

Under the terms of this arrangement the supplier will take on the following tasks:

  • Review work completed to date within the demographic disaggregation workstream, and other relevant supporting literature, providing recommendations on the existing disaggregation workstream roadmap.
  • Finalise the northern Nigeria case study, applying the approach in full and updating existing documentation.
  • Recommend and implement refinements to the methodology, in consultation with the project team.
  • Utilise the methodology in at least two other displacement contexts identified in consultation with the project team, reviewing available data and implementing the approach, making adaptions as required for the chosen context.
  • Design and complete validation processes for model outputs (likely including qualitative review with field teams).

Experience and skill set required

  • High level skills in research and handling of data, models and analysis, and working creatively with diverse data.
  • Experience delivering and documenting a quantitative (mathematical, statistical, or machine learning) model or tool.
  • Familiarity with demographic and population modelling. Knowledge of the work of WorldPop, SEDAC, UN DESA, and similar organisations is also advantageous.
  • Able to draw on broader technical expertise from academic team to guide and deliver product.
  • Experience with migration, displacement or broader humanitarian work is an advantage, but not required.

Expected Deliverables

Final deliverables will shift according to the approach taken by the supplier and project needs. At minimum the deliverables will include:

  • Methodological proof-of-concept capable of age and gender disaggregation of IDP populations.
  • Report on work completed, including:
    • Technical explanation of the chosen methodology
    • Documentation of its application in the selected contexts.
    • Validation exercises
  • A database of all data used in work and associated documentation.


Outputs subject to review by PD project team throughout arrangement lifetime. Draft final deliverables will be reviewed two weeks before end of project. Final deliverables due at end of project.

Status updates/reporting

Weekly calls with project team.


Project team will conduct ongoing monitoring of work. Draft deliverables will be reviewed two weeks before end of project.

General assumptions and dependencies

Target functionality can be delivered with available data resources.

Job description:

Find out more about this role by downloading the job description here Job description

Date advertised: 21 Apr 2021

Closing date: 1 Aug 2021 - 01:59 EAT

Location: Worldwide, Worldwide

Department: Programme Operations

Type: Contingent

Schedule: Full-time

Apply Now